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Monday, 30 January 2017

World of Forestry

Managing forests and water – workshop in China 


The water budget of forest ecosystems depends heavily on climate, site and forest structure. Forest structure is strongly influenced by forest management measures such as tree species selection, stand structure and density management, and harvesting methods.
Although the water cycle in forest stands is well understood, the role of forests in sustainable management of water resources and flood mitigation is often debated, as is the development strategy of promoting afforestation.

To help ground the debate in reliable science, from 12 to 16 November 2007 the Chinese Academy of Forestry hosted the workshop “Water Management through Forest Management”, jointly organized with the Forest Ecosytems Research Center of Goettingen University, Germany under the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Division 8.01.04 – Water supply and quality. Held in Beijing, China, it was attended by 77 participants from 11 countries.

The workshop explored relations of forest management to two important aspects of water supply: provision of high-quality water to humans and water supply to the forest itself. The balance between available water and the water demands of forests has been less researched but is of great importance as many countries step up forest planting for carbon fixation, energy and wood supply and environmental restoration.

Presentations were grouped in five sessions:
  • Impact of forest management on water quality and quantity; 
  • Soil water and water use;
  • Forest and water management under changing climate;
  • Application of ecohydrological models – including their potential use in development of decision-support tools;
  • Strategy and research for integrated forest and water management.
The rapidly changing climate and forestry development may put the water-related functions of forests at risk. Increased drought stress may weaken the stability of the forest itself. Although answers are still needed on how to integrate management of forests and water to solve the varied problems of different regions, this workshop identified gaps in knowledge to help shape future research in integrated forest-water management, and represents a positive step in overcoming the prevailing monosectoral approaches.

FAO/ FO-6585/M. Kashio

Ministers responsible for forests in Europe adopt resolutions on wood energy and water 

The fifth session of the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE), “Forests for Quality of Life”, concluded with a ministerial declaration and resolutions on promotion of wood as a source of renewable energy and forest’s role in water protection in the context of climate change. 
The conference, held in Warsaw, Poland from 5 to 7 November 2007, was jointly organized by Poland and Norway and attended by delegations from over 40 European countries, including 16 ministers responsible for forests and forestry. Discussions emphasized the role of forests in modern life in the face of challenges from socio-economic development, human pressure on natural resources and the consequences of climate change. 

Lech Kaczy´nski, President of Poland, opened the conference, drawing attention to the need to reconcile economic development with protection of the natural environment. 
The report State of Europe’s Forests 2007, jointly prepared by the MCPFE Liaison Unit Warsaw, FAO and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE), was presented at the conference. It indicates that both the area of forests in Europe and their productive potential are increasing. Over the past 15 years, the region has gained 13 million hectares of forest, an area the size of Greece. The quantity of wood resources is also steadily growing.

Forty MCPFE signatories adopted two resolutions for implementation at the national level. Warsaw Resolution 1, “Forests, wood and energy”, obliges States to increase the forest sector’s role in energy production and the use of forest biomass for renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Noting the increasing competition in demand for wood for energy and industry, it calls for enhanced partnership of public and private forest owners, wood industry and energy producers. 
Warsaw Resolution 2, “Forests and water”, stresses the role of forests in protecting the quality and quantity of water, preventing floods, mitigating the effects of drought and counteracting soil erosion. Countries make a commitment to manage forests sustainably in relation to water; to coordinate policies on forests and water; to develop knowledge and strategies related to consequences of climate change on forest and water interactions; and to further the economic valuation of water-related forest services.

In the Warsaw Declaration, countries pledge to undertake further activities towards implementation of sustainable forest management as an indispensable element of sustainable development. The declaration recognizes the importance of forests in improving quality of life, and commits countries to enhance the contribution of forests and sustainable forest management in combating climate change, conserving biological diversity, providing renewable energy and wood products, ensuring quality water supply and mitigating natural hazards and environmental degradation. Furthermore, it emphasizes collaboration of MCPFE with other regional processes, with synergies to facilitate a consistent Pan-European input to international initiatives. 

In addition, delegates adopted ministerial statements on forest fires in South Europe and on a Pan-European Forest Week, to be held in October 2008, organized jointly by FAO, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the European Union and MCPFE.

The previous Ministerial Conferences were held in Strasbourg (1990), Helsinki (1993), Lisbon (1998) and Vienna (2003).

Forests in evidence at Bali climate change meetings

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2007, indicates that in the 1990s nearly one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions resulted from land-use change, primarily deforestation. This awareness has raised the prominence of forest conservation and sustainable forest management in global climate change discussions, and in particular in recent negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, which included sessions of the Conference of the Parties (COP-13) to UNFCCC, its subsidiary bodies and the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, was held in Bali, Indonesia from 3 to 14 December 2007. The combined meetings drew more than 10 000 participants. The role of forests was discussed intensively. COP-13 culminated in the adoption of the Bali Action Plan, which outlines actions to 2012 and beyond. 

Forest-relevant decisions

The Bali Action Plan specifies an area for action related to forests: “Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries”.
The COP also adopted a specific decision on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), which emphasized the urgency of taking further meaningful action to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. Parties are encouraged to explore a range of actions to address the drivers of deforestation, including through demonstration activities. The UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) is requested to undertake a programme of work on methodological issues related to policy approaches and positive incentives. 
Furthermore, the COP adopted a decision revising the limit for small-scale afforestation and reforestation project activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – an effort to stimulate more small-scale projects of this type. The decision increases the upper limit of annual greenhouse gas removals eligible for emission reduction credits from 8 to 16 kilotonnes. 

The conference approved an adaptation fund to improve the defences of poor and vulnerable countries against the effects of climate change. The fund is intended to finance adaptation projects such as improved water supplies for drought-prone areas and conservation and restoration of mangroves for coastal protection. The fund will be administered by the Global Environment Facility and overseen by representatives from both industrialized and non-industrialized countries. Funding will come from a 2 percent levy on revenues generated by the CDM and thus will not depend on aid budgets.

Forest Day

To draw attention to forest issues and inform the discussions related to forests under negotiation at COP 13, on 8 December 2007 the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) organized a Forest Day which was co-hosted by the partners of the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF). Four main sessions addressed methodological challenges in estimating forest carbon; market and governance; equity versus efficiency; and adaptation. In addition 25 side events focused on diverse climate-change related topics, including carbon emission abatement costs from reduced deforestation; the future of the land-use sector in carbon markets; funding for REDD; biofuels for climate change mitigation; and national experiences in baseline analysis of deforestation. Forest Day was attended by more than 800 people, including scientists, policy-makers and representatives of intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations. 
CPF presented key recommendations to the Executive Secretary of UNFCCC related to the role of forests in combating climate change, including the need for:
  • addressing the drivers of deforestation, including those beyond the forest sector, for the success of mechanisms based on REDD;
  • a combination of market and governance-based approaches; 
  • simple mechanisms with low transaction costs; 
  • clarified land rights and legal rights to carbon to ensure equity in the distribution of benefits from REDD; 
  • immediate adaptation focused on the most vulnerable, including forest-dependent people. 

Initiatives launched in support of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

The World Bank launched the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), a ten-year initiative to establish a forest carbon market that economically favours forest conservation and benefits developing countries. Nine industrialized countries have pledged US$155 million to start. Currently, developing countries cannot sell carbon credits from avoided deforestation or degradation; however, FCPF will support pilot efforts intended to help inform related decisions for the post-2012 climate change regime and for a potential carbon market mechanism. 
Also at Bali, the Government of Norway announced that it is ready to provide funding of 3 billion kroner (about US$570 million) per year over a five-year period to support REDD efforts.

For further details log on website :
http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a1598e/a1598e16.htm

FAO Forestry

Author

Future of forests in Asia and the Pacific

Unprecedented economic, social and environmental change in the Asia and the Pacific region is significantly altering the way its forests are regarded and used. Looking forward was the theme of a regional conference entitled “The Future of Forests in Asia and the Pacific: Outlook for 2020” held in Chiang Mai, Thailand from 16 to 18 October 2007. The conference attracted more than 250 participants from over 40 countries.
The conference was organized by the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission (APFC) within the scope of the ongoing Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study (APFSOS II) – both as an opportunity for presentation of the study’s preliminary findings, and as a forum for gathering the views of diverse stakeholders on emerging changes and their implications for forests and forestry in the region. Participants, in addition to APFSOS national focal points, included foresters, students, educators, researchers, government officials, project managers and representatives from the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and multilateral organizations. Special guests were five winners of an essay competition for young professionals who had eloquently provided their views on the future of forests in the region.

Conference participants analysed the major driving forces of change in the region, and how these forces are likely to shape the perception and use of forests in the coming years. Themes included macro-economic prospects, environmental change, institutional transition, urbanization, technological development and application, international trade, land-use trends, poverty alleviation and the growing importance of planted forests. Private-sector and civil-society perspectives were also presented.

In the keynote address, Jagmohan Maini, former coordinator of the United Nations Forum on Forests, spoke of the importance of far-reaching planning processes. Subsequent presentations took stock of the current status of the region’s forests and offered projections of many of the pressures expected to influence forests in the coming years. Many divergent views – pessimistic and optimistic in varying measure – led to vibrant discussions about the future of forests in the region and how best to address emerging challenges. A poster session with 55 entries highlighted prospects at the national level, providing participants an opportunity to engage in informal discussion on focused topics.

In general, the conference affirmed that the future of forests and forestry in the region will continue to be driven by an array of factors largely outside the forest sector. Expanding populations, a shift from subsistence to consumer economies, increasing wealth and economic activity and new markets will increase overall demand on forests, while growing environmental pressures will require that “new” forest values be captured for society in general. As the numbers and kinds of demands placed on forests increase, it is anticipated that so too will the numbers and kinds of stakeholders concerned with how forests are managed. This highlights the immense challenge of balancing competing demands.

Corruption, while not unique to forestry, is likely to continue to hinder sustainable forest management efforts unless dramatic action is taken across all sectors to address the problem. The importance of flexible governance structures and active collaboration with other sectors and regions was a common message emerging from the conference.
More sophisticated thinking and new partnerships will be needed to address the challenges successfully. Viable solutions will entail nuanced, interdisciplinary and international thinking and cooperation. The conference was an important step in the direction of such needed exchange and collaboration.

The conference proceedings will be published in early 2008. The programme, presentations and papers are available at: www.fao.org/forestry/site/33592/en 
FAO/FO-5973/K. Chuankul

Special Event on Forests and Energy

On 20 November 2007, at the biennial session of the Conference of FAO, Director-General Jacques Diouf convened a High-Level Special Event on Forests and Energy. Pedro Verona Rodrigues Pires, President of Cape Verde, delivered the keynote speech, and the session was chaired by the Minister for Forestry of the Congo and the Minister for Agriculture of Latvia.

Participation included 275 delegates from approximately 90 FAO member countries. Country statements recognized that bioenergy has become a global strategic issue which increasingly affects economic, social and environmental conditions and has potential to mitigate climate change. Wood is the most important biofuel and an economically and environmentally efficient substitute for fossil fuels. However, particularly in developing countries, a lack of information on wood used for fuel hampers countries’ decision-making on the sustainable use of this resource, and thus hinders an opportunity to mitigate climate change and strengthen countries’ energy mix. Furthermore, with growing population and increasing land allocation for energy production, trade-offs between forest, energy and agricultural use of land need to be carefully examined.
Delegates expressed the following needs for coping with current and future challenges in this area: 
  • wood energy strategies based on sustainable forest management concepts;
  • capacity building for integration of bioenergy strategies in national forest programmes and plans;
  • attention to bioenergy as a cross-sectoral issue and its integration in forest, agricultural and other land-use policies;
  • coordination of bioenergy strategies with poverty eradication and poverty reduction policies;
  • enhanced capacities for the use of alternative renewable energy sources, including hydropower, solar energy and biogas;
  • increased energy efficiency of wood combustion at household and industrial levels;
  • better use of post-consumer wood;
  • consideration of the value of wood for other end-uses before it is used for energy generation;
  • effective dissemination of research and development findings, technologies and expertise for efficient and healthy energy use;
  • avoidance of market distortions in the promotion of bioenergy;
  • systems of continuous checks and balances for production of biofuels to avoid negative impacts on the environment and ensure the well-being of local communities;
  • careful consideration of food security and negative effects on other sectors in the design and implementation of incentives for biofuel production.

XIII World Forestry Congress, 2009: call for papers

From 18 to 25 October 2009, the international forestry community will meet in Buenos Aires, Argentina for the XIII World Forestry Congress – the most important forestry meeting worldwide. For one week, representatives of the public and private sectors, the scientific community, foresters, professionals and other interested parties will have an opportunity to analyse and discuss the gamut of forest-related issues.
Under the theme “Forests in development – a vital balance”, the congress will address sustainable forest management from a global and integrated perspective. It will cover seven thematic areas: 
  • Forests and biodiversity;
  • Producing for development;
  • Forests in the service of people;
  • Caring for our forests;
  • Forest sector: development opportunities;
  • Organizing forest development;
  • People and forest in harmony.
The complete thematic structure of the congress can be viewed on the congress’s Web site (www.wfc2009.org).
Voluntary presentations and poster sessions will be an important part of the congress. These must express new ideas and provide information on current investigations, field experiences, development projects, theoretical models or practical applications. The congress will seek to achieve a balanced representation of geographic regions and points of view.
All interested people are invited to submit papers before 30 June 2008. Papers must not exceed 4 500 words, tables included, and must include an abstract of not longer than 250 words. The author must identify the congress theme to which the paper corresponds, justifying this placement using three to five keywords. 
All submissions will be peer reviewed and evaluated using the following criteria:
  • Relevance: Is the topic relevant to the thematic sessions? Will it be interesting to a large number of participants?
  • Quality: Is the argument coherent, well structured and comprehensible?
  • Originality: Is the treatment of the subject innovative and original? Previously published papers are not eligible. 
According to their ranking, papers will be published in full or in part on the congress’s Web site.
Some papers will be selected for presentation by their authors during the congress sessions, and some authors may be invited to prepare posters. For a paper to be considered for presentation, it must be of major interest to the congress deliberations and provide an exhaustive analysis of the topic addressed. It should apply to a significant number of countries or at least one ecoregion; be related to current and emerging issues; and address cross-sectoral and interdisciplinary linkages. Authors must accept that, without prior notification, their documents may be edited and translated into the official languages of the congress – Spanish, English and French.
All individuals who are planning to participate in the congress, including those invited to make presentations, are required to register and are responsible for payment of the registration fee and their own expenses. 
Guidelines for submissions can be downloaded from the congress Web site (www.wfc2009.org). They can also be requested by mail or fax (see below) or by e-mail to: info@wfc2009.org
Authors are strongly encouraged to submit their contributions by uploading them on the congress Web site. Alternatively, papers, including abstracts, can be sent before 30 June 2008 to:
Documentation Officer
XIII World Forestry Congress
Forestry Department
FAO
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
00153 Rome, Italy
Tel: +39 06 5705-2198
Fax: +39 06 5705-5137
E-mail: WFC-XIII@fao.org
Individuals or groups wishing to receive future announcements by e-mail can subscribe at: www.wfc2009.org

Linking national forest programmes to poverty reduction strategies in Africa 

Between November 2005 and July 2007, FAO conducted a study in ten countries in Africa (Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia), in collaboration with the National Forest Programme Facility, to examine the linkages between national forest programmes and national strategies to reduce poverty. The study revealed that the two processes are not well connected for the most part, mainly because central authorities are often unaware of the many ways in which forests and trees outside forests help to reduce poverty and, by the same token, forestry officials are not generally engaged in national discussions on poverty. The study also found that weak forestry capacity in all countries is hindering efforts to strengthen collaboration within and outside the sector, including with central planning agencies and relevant line ministries.

In Nairobi, Kenya from 20 to 22 November 2007, a regional workshop was held to exchange ideas on how to increase the presence and influence of forestry in central decision-making processes. To this end, the ten countries that participated in the study explored practical ways to make national forest programmes an integral part of national development plans and poverty reduction strategies. The workshop, organized by FAO in partnership with the Kenya Forest Service and the National Forest Programme Facility, brought together more than 40 participants from government and international organizations, including ministries outside forestry – finance, planning and economic development, national statistics, environment, and agriculture, among others.

Following a rich exchange of views on how best to improve collaboration to reduce poverty – which validated the main findings and conclusions of the study – each country prepared a list of priorities for follow-up action and identified areas requiring support from the Facility and other international partners. As a positive sign of commitment to implement the suggestions contained in the country reports, participants from Kenya established a multidisciplinary task force during the workshop and scheduled a first meeting for the following week. 

Comments requested on new FAO strategy for forestry

In March 2007, the Committee on Forestry (COFO) requested that a new FAO strategy for forestry be developed in consultation with FAO member countries and other partners. The consultative process has begun. In the first stage of the consultation, comments are requested on a discussion paper on elements of a possible strategy, posted online (see below). The paper presents the following potential strategic goals for forestry:
  • Decision-making is informed, harmonized across sectors, and participatory.
  • Benefits from trees, forests and forestry are increasing, equitably shared, and widely recognized and appreciated.
  • Forest resources are increasing and ecosystem services are increasingly valued. 
The paper also outlines potential elements of strategies for achieving the goals, including:
  • strengthening country capacities to make good decisions about forests through participatory processes;
  • strengthening information to support policy-making; 
  • improving forestry practices including through best practice guidelines developed using multistakeholder processes;
  • promoting networks for sharing knowledge and implementing improved practices;
  • working across sectors, helping countries mainstream forestry in national development processes; 
  • working in partnership with others in the public and private sectors to leverage resources and avoid duplication;
  • improving vertical linkages, facilitating knowledge exchange between local, national, regional and global levels;
  • improving advocacy to raise awareness and increase commitments to invest in better forestry; 
  • continuing to serve as a neutral forum for exchange of knowledge about forests and forestry.
Based on feedback received during the first part of 2008 – including discussions at the biennial sessions of the Regional Forestry Commissions – a draft strategy will be developed and circulated for comments during a second phase of the consultation in mid-2008. The goal is to propose a new strategy to COFO at its next meeting in March 2009. 
Unasylva readers are invited to comment on the discussion paper. To review it and to send comments electronically, please visit: www.fao.org/forestry/strategy
Comments can also be sent by e-mail to: FO-Strategy@fao.org

First Community Forestry Agreements signed in Cambodia 

FAO projects over many years, funded by Belgium and New Zealand, have facilitated a major development in community forestry in Cambodia: the signing of the country’s first ten Community Forestry Agreements. On 19 November 2007, a formal signing ceremony took place in Tbeng Lech Village, Siem Reap Province, between the Chief of the Forestry Administration of Siem Reap Cantonment and the chairs of ten Community Forestry Management Committees. Also present were the Secretary of State for the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the Provincial Governor of Siem Reap and the Director General of the Forestry Administration.

In Cambodia, development of a legal framework for community forestry, clearly defining the rights, roles and responsibilities of the State and of communities, began in the early 1990s. As a result of these efforts, the Forest Law (2002) recognizes community forestry as one of the modalities for sustainable forest management in the country. Other elements of the framework include the Subdecree on Community Forestry Management (2003) and Guidelines for Community Forestry (2006).

Many donor-supported projects were simultaneously developing community forestry on the ground with interested communities. Throughout the country there are now more than 264 Community Forests at various stages of development, covering approximately 179 000 ha and involving more than 57 000 families who are beginning to realize direct benefits. Most of the communities have taken steps towards the formal recognition of their Community Forests and are working with the Forestry Administration and partners to complete the remaining steps required by the guidelines.

The FAO project “Community Forestry in Northwestern Cambodia”, with 12 years of activity one of the longest-running community forestry projects in the country, has over the years supported the development of 37 Community Forests and six Community Protected Areas in Siem Reap Province. The Siem Reap Cantonment was the first to submit a list of potential Community Forests to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and the first to receive approval for these forests. The signing of the Community Forestry Agreements represents the final step in the formalization of these Community Forests, which can now begin to develop formal Community Forestry Management Plans.

The project will continue to provide support to help the other identified Community Forests reach the same stage. 

FAO to develop report on the state of the world’s forest genetic resources

At its eleventh session in June 2007, the FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture requested that FAO prepare a report on the State of the World’s Forest Genetic Resources, for review at its twelfth session in 2009. The commission acknowledged the urgent need to conserve, manage and sustainably use forest genetic resources to support food security, poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability, and approved the inclusion of forest genetic resources in its Multi-Year Programme of Work. 
Work on the report will be undertaken in close collaboration with international partners such as Bioversity International, and in synergy with ongoing regional and global programmes such as those carried out under the Convention on Biological Diversity. The report will focus on tree and shrub genetic resources of actual or potential value for human well-being, and will provide the basis for developing a framework for action to advance conservation and sustainable use at the national, regional, ecoregional and global levels.
The report will draw on data from the Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2005 and national and regional studies on forest genetic resources carried out with FAO support since the mid-1990s. However, with current knowledge most quantitative and qualitative variables commonly recorded in forest inventories cannot be used to determine status and trends at the level of tree species, provenances, populations and genes. It will thus be necessary to define variables for assessing biological diversity and to develop easily measurable genetic indicators for monitoring changes over time.

For further details log on website :
http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a1598e/a1598e15.htm

Forests of Mount Kulal, Kenya: source of water and support to local livelihoods

Author
T.Y. Watkins and M. Imbumi

Tammy Y. Watkins is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States.

Maryam Imbumi is Botanist, National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.

Mist-capped Mount Kulal, rising in the middle of one of the driest regions of East Africa, provides vital hydrological services for the entire region.

Mount Kulal is an eroded volcanic peak covered with mist forest at its summit and varying vegetation types below. It is among the highest peaks in northern Kenya and represents a unique ecosystem surrounded by arid and semi-arid lands on all sides. The mountain ecosystem captures moisture in the forms of mist and rain and provides important hydrological services for the entire region.

Mount Kulal is the centrepiece of the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) reserve of the same name, which is one of six MAB reserves in Kenya. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) designated it as a MAB reserve in 1979. Located in northern Kenya in the Marsabit District, the reserve covers about 7 000 km2 extending from the eastern side of Lake Turkana through ragged lava flows to the top of Mount Kulal, where the core zone measuring 11 km2 is located. In the eastern and northeastern part of the core zone, the reserve drops down through semi-desert ecosystems to the hot lowlands of the Chalbi Desert (see Map).

The Turkana, Samburu, Rendille, El Molo and Gabbra people who inhabit this varied landscape rely on the environment for their herding, fishing and farming livelihoods while in turn having an undeniable impact on it. These primarily pastoralist cultures have adapted their subsistence practices to incorporate and increasingly rely on both montane forests and semi-arid vegetation for many forest products and services, including fuelwood, raw material for charcoal, timber for construction, food, medicines and socio-cultural and spiritual services. A few individuals on Mount Kulal and along Lake Turkana have begun businesses or cooperatives capitalizing on ecotourism interest in the region.

The Integrated Project in Arid Lands (IPAL), a collaborative effort of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the MAB Programme of UNESCO, carried out research in this region from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s and deepened understanding of the biotic systems supported by the mountain in the midst of arid lands. The Government of Kenya gazetted the forests during this period. The Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI) assumed programme management from UNESCO, but it has not had active programmes for over a decade. Since cessation of these programmes, conservation and management activities in Mount Kulal forests as well as the entire reserve have come to a halt. The forests may be at risk of severe degradation.

According to Kenyan law, the forests and other areas not occupied by homesteads belong to the government, but according to local traditions the land is held collectively by the community. Landownership has not yet been put to the test legally at Mount Kulal, nor elsewhere in northern Kenya (except at the Samburu Game Reserve, where conservation measures barred nomadic pastoralists from their traditional pastures). The uncertain land tenure situation represents a challenge for conservation management planning and for sustainable forest management.

This article is based on the work of IPAL and the findings of a UNESCO-Kenya multidisciplinary working group that visited the Mount Kulal reserve in December 2006 to explore the current status of the reserve and its inhabitants.

Mount Kulal biosphere reserve 

GEOLOGY, TOPOGRAPHY AND HYDROLOGY

As Mount Kulal is of volcanic origin, lava fields define the landscape in the surrounding area (Herlocker, 1979) and the mountain’s sides are steep and often slashed by deep canyons, especially on the eastern and western flanks. To the west, Lake Turkana lies at 410 m elevation while the floor of the Chalbi Desert to the north is between 435 and 500 m. The highest point of Mount Kulal is 2 335 m. This peak is one wall of the remains of a volcanic crater located at the centre of the mountain ridge, but the eastern rim has been eroded over millennia to form the magnificent El Kajarta Gorge, which splits Kulal into two parts (Herlocker, 1979). The lower slopes give way to alluvial plains at 500 to 700 m. To the south, these plains are bounded by the even higher mountain ranges of the Ndotos and Nyiru (2 752 m).

The location of a peak as high as Mount Kulal in the middle of one of the driest regions of East Africa not only makes it unique topographically, but also contributes to the particular ecosystem services the mountain and its forests provide to the region. The climate of the region is driven by the northeast and southeast monsoon systems. The northeast monsoon provides hot, dry air masses that bring high winds from the north or northeast and a short rainy season in October and November. The southeast monsoon, originating in the Indian Ocean, is more favourable for rainfall. The long rainy season is highly variable but usually peaks during April. The topography of Mount Kulal creates what is known as orographic lifting: air masses are forced from lower to higher elevation, where they cool down and thus can no longer hold as much moisture, so that clouds and precipitation form. This phenomenon, along with the convergence of the conflicting monsoon systems, results in cooling and rainfall (Herlocker, 1979). Mist forests at the core zone of the MAB reserve aid in trapping moisture derived from the evapotranspiration occurring in the lowlands, and may increase local rainfall, although this has not been adequately studied. 
Springs on Mount Kulal currently flow year round and maintain stream ecologies rich in plant diversity 
T.Y. Watkins

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

The Mount Kulal forests aid in holding water and delivering it to the villages on and around the mountain. Water is delivered by springs in the forest and on the shoulders of the mountain, as well as by seasonal and constant springs at the base of the mountain. Up to a dozen springs and water holes are known on the mountain alone (Synott, 1979). Intact forests at all levels, from the mist and cloud forests at the summit, through the villages of Gatab, Oltorop, Larashi and Arabal, to the Acacia forests on the shoulders of the mountain, aid in retention and absorption of the often short and intense rains and in preventing rapid runoff. Rapid runoff can cause not only soil erosion and loss of vegetative cover, but also loss of livestock and human life through serious flooding downstream.

The rich volcanic soils that are increasingly used for agriculture to complement traditional herding practices are not the only important geological feature of Mount Kulal. The ancient lava flows filter and conduct water to springs throughout the region. Loyangalani Spring provides year-round freshwater on the eastern shore of the salty Lake Turkana and has become the key to the largest settlement in the region (Fuchs et al., 1935). Loyangalani was originally established as a trading and administrative centre based on proximity to the spring and remains reliant on it for all its freshwater (Fratkin and Roth, 2005). It now serves as a base for the small amount of ecotourism in the reserve. The Oasis Lodge, outside the centre of Loyangalani but close to the origin of Loyangalani Spring, was the first business established purely for tourism in the region and has first access to water from the springs. Although there are now many camps and lodges in the region, the Oasis Lodge remains the premier eco­tourism lodge. In addition, numerous other seasonal springs rise near lava-strewn streambeds or in the middle of lava fields. These are important watering holes for humans and for the animals on which they depend for their livelihoods.
Construction of houses from wood is the most common use of forest products in the villages of Mount Kulal 
T.Y. Watkins

On Mount Kulal fuelwood is vital most of year because of the cool climate and high humidity
T.Y. Watkins

FORESTS AND LIVELIHOODS

Mount Kulal forest provides many resources to communities living on the mountain as well as those living at lower altitudes. The forest is the main source of building material, fuelwood and medicine for local inhabitants. The deep gorges are used by morans, young Samburu warriors, as training and hiding grounds. Samburu villagers report the historical use of numerous caves, gorges and even cavernous fig-tree trunks as refuges during raids and prolonged battles with neighbouring pastoralists.

The forest products used most often are poles for construction of local houses. Samburu houses in the villages of Mount Kulal take one of two forms. Mud and pole structures built with tree trunks can last decades, especially with regular maintenance of mud walls and metal roofs. More traditional homes use smaller branches that are buried in the ground and bent into a dome to form the main structure of the house. This structure is then thatched with grass and brush and now preferably roofed with plastic. These homes may last only a few years and it is not unusual for a compound to have several constructions of varying ages. Smaller twigs (e.g. of Lippia sp. and Lantana sp.) for reinforcing the mud walls may be obtained from bushland near the village rather than from the forest.

Probably used at an equal rate is deadwood for fuelwood. Local administrative officials attempt to enforce conservation laws established during more active management of the reserve, which limit cutting of living trees for fuelwood in the forests on the mountain. However, cutting of brush or trees in the forested areas outside the core zone and the lowlands of the reserve seems to be unregulated. Fuelwood here is vital most of the year because of the cool climate and high humidity. Woodfuel (fuelwood and charcoal) is the main energy source, but charcoal is made on a small scale, mainly for local consumption. According to one resident of Gatab, some households collect as much as 40 to 50 kg of fuelwood daily, although this is probably an extreme upper limit.

On a smaller scale, minerals are quite important to Samburu culture. Local people collect red ochre from lorian lolkaria or “a place of red ochre” in the forest. The ochre is mixed with sheep-tail fat and smeared on the hair to make it beautiful and grow long. It is mainly used by moran, although young women may also use small amounts. Harvesters sell the ochre at 10 shillings (US$0.15) per tablespoon in local villages.

Most surveyed residents verified that the forest is a rich source of local and traditional medicines, although it is difficult to quantify the amounts collected. As this information was received from non-specialists, it is safe to assume that many if not most households collect these products periodically. Since they are available to all in the nearby forest, they are not actively traded or exchanged in markets. Some plants are used in soup, mainly by moran, to prevent diseases, while women add certain plants to the milk given to children to fortify them. Both Clerodendrum myricoides and Boerhavia coccinea are planted in homesteads for their medicinal value.

During prolonged droughts people bring their animals into the forests to forage. Branches, usually of olive trees (Olea europaea ssp. cuspidata and Olea ca­pensis ssp. macrocarpa), are cut to feed the animals. During extreme droughts, animals also browse most other plants in the forest. The extent and effect of grazing in the forest is not yet known. Signs of cut branches and occasionally small trees are visible in the forest. Selective use of preferred species may warrant study to determine the effect of decreased biodiversity of forest species. Formerly, IPAL projects employed a guard to limit grazing inside the forest (Lewis, 1977), but this has since been replaced by the community’s own surveillance team. In times of extreme drought when forest resources become more important to livestock, elders allow unsupervised grazing in the forest.

Provision of water is the most important service provided by the forest for local villages. A number of springs now have impoundments to collect water for piping by gravity flow to holding tanks that serve local communities. Current construction, expansion and maintenance of this system are provided through the African Inland Church mission in Gatab. The water committee, a part of the local village council, is responsible for the management of the water system and any possible extension of it in the villages. Tampering with the water sources invites a fine of 1 000 shillings (about US$15) and other disciplinary measures by the local administration. In lowland areas three dams have been constructed and have proved useful to pastoral groups who mainly use them to water their livestock. 
An impoundment constructed about 30 years ago collects Mount Kulal spring water which is then piped to holding tanks that serve local communities
T.Y. Watkins

Trees anchor the unstable volcanic soils of Mount Kulal; slip erosion is common in areas that have been cleared near many springs in the forest
T.Y. Watkins

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVED CONSERVATION

Mount Kulal’s topography works in combination with regional weather patterns to trap condensation which gives rise to mist forests. The often lush highland forest cover holds rich volcanic soil in place during the seasonal rainfall. By slowing down runoff, forest cover not only prevents soil erosion that is evident in cleared areas, but also helps direct rainwater to the porous lava beds, in turn directing spring water to the edges of the Chalbi Desert and the rocky shores of Lake Turkana.

Diverse forest biological resources provide shelter, food, medicine and cultural and historical value to local people. Traditional pastoralist Samburu families are diversifying livelihoods and increasingly relying on agriculture for subsistence and trade. The newly established agriculture depends on water and soil, which both rely on the natural resources of Mount Kulal. People living inside the MAB reserve need to use and manage the resources sustainably so as not to endanger the very environment that supports them.

The UNESCO working group for the Mount Kulal biosphere reserve has grouped recommendations for the reserve’s future into three broad categories: capacity building, conservation and development.

The Samburu communities living on Mount Kulal have a few usually species-specific traditional conservation practices. For example, Ficus thonningii is associated with rituals and is sacred to the Samburu people. Juniperus procera, although not ritually significant, is also protected. The cultural importance of some trees to the Samburu may explain why they have maintained some of the conservation practices aimed at forests introduced by UNESCO despite their limited financial resources. This strong foundation needs to be built upon and reinforced. Community administrators and leaders need to network and continue to build capacity for conservation and development.

In spite of individual awareness regarding conservation issues and community policing of blatant forest destruction, people living within the reserve tend to encroach on the forests of Mount Kulal. The continued selection of some trees for use and others for conservation will affect the biodiversity of the forests and have unknown consequences. In addition, several cultural groups live inside the reserve, not only the Samburu. Conservation efforts need to focus on the importance of maintaining ecosystem services for all inhabitants of the reserve and the region. Education in forest management and resource conservation that links livelihoods explicitly with ecosystem services will clarify the need to conserve biodiversity and manage forests in a sustainable way. Continuing participatory research will lead to better understanding of human/environment interactions and guide conservation with a focus on continuing access to forest products for sustainable livelihoods.

Trade and regional integration of communities and individuals may provide opportunities to improve livelihoods, food security and health. Villagers are already expanding herd diversity and introducing horticulture and market exchange into their livelihood portfolios. This can be done in a sustainable fashion, although it is not always done so now. Current and future development schemes must incorporate maintenance of biodiversity and conservation as necessary components. 
Bibliography
Herlocker, D. 1979. Project 3: Impact of human activities and land use practices on grazing lands. Nairobi, Kenya UNEP: Integrated Project in Arid Lands (IPAL).

Fratkin, E. & Roth, E.A. 2005. As pastoralists settle. New York, USA, Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Fuchs, V.E., Wakefield, R.C., Millard, J.F. & MacInnes, D.G. 1935. The Lake Rudolf rift valley expedition, 1934. The Geographical Journal, 86(2):114–137.

Lewis, J.G. 1977. Report of a short-term consultancy on the grazing ecosystem in the Mt. Kulal Region, Northern Kenya. Project 3: Impact of Human Activities and Land Use Practices on Grazing Lands. IPAL Technical Report E-3. Nairobi, UNEP-MAB.

Synott, T.J. 1979. A report on the status, importance and protection of the montane forests. IPAL Technical Report D-2a. Nairobi, UNESCO.

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Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

Author
T. Stohlgren, C. Jarnevich and S. Kumar

Thomas Stohlgren is Branch Chief and Catherine Jarnevich is Ecologist at the Fort Collins Science Center of the United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States.

Sunil Kumar is Scientist at the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States.

Climate change is one of many drivers affecting forest hydrology.
Climate is a major driver of forest species distributions and the growth rate and structure of forests. Thus, climate change can potentially have significant effects on mountain forest hydrology, particularly the amount of water available downstream. However, many other factors influence forest biomass and mountain hydrology, and climate change effects cannot be viewed in isolation from previous land use histories (i.e. forest legacies), altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire frequency, insect outbreaks, floods) and invasive species. Based on research from Colorado, United States, this article examines the many factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability.

FOREST LEGACIES

Few current landscapes in the United States have escaped human influence, for example through logging, mining, agriculture, grazing by domestic livestock, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire and/or pollution. Many landscapes continue to undergo changes caused by human use, while others are reverting to their natural state (Figure 1). The quality and amount of water available downstream is likely to be affected by changes in the composition, structure, canopy cover and biomass of the forest as it responds to past human land use and other disturbances, e.g. from forest fire. For example, many watersheds in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado were affected by logging, mining and increased human-caused fires between 1850 and 1900 (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). Stream flow probably increased following those disturbances, remaining high while forests were recovering. Current stream flow might logically be expected to be less owing to increased interception of snow by maturing forest canopy and increased water use by the forest. Climate change in the late twentieth century must be measured against the backdrop of forest and landscape legacies.
1
Repeat photography of a subalpine watershed in Colorado, United States 
T. Veblen, University of Colorado, Boulder

CLIMATE CHANGE AND STREAM FLOW

Climate change is not new to montane watersheds (Pielou, 1991). For example, in the upper Colorado River Basin in the United States, mean annual temperature has increased significantly since the end of the Little Ice Age (around 1850). As shown in Figure 2 (top) average temperature has increased by 1ºC since systematic measurements began in 1895. In recent years the warming has been greater still; accelerated by human activities, change rates have become extremely rapid in some areas. At watershed weather stations in the western third of Colorado, precipitation has declined slightly but not significantly over the same period, decreasing on average by less than 3 percent (Figure 2, middle). Annual variation in temperature and precipitation has been significant (Figure 2, bottom), fluctuating sporadically from warm-dry years to cool-wet years, or from warm-wet years to cool-dry years, with many years in each quadrant. (The long-term average is at the centre of the diagram.) Forest plant and animal species in the watershed have been subjected to fluctuations in mean temperature of almost 5ºC and a 30 percent range in annual precipitation since the beginning of the climate record.

Many long-lived forest plant and animal species have persisted despite these annual fluctuations in climate; indeed the fluctuations may have heightened their adaptability to long-term climate shifts. Still, annual fluctuations may have lesser effects on forest structure than extreme events such as droughts lasting several years or repeated years of warmer-than-average winters, which exacerbate major outbreaks of forest insects. Thus, rare climate scenarios may have long-lasting effects on forest structure and biomass and later downstream flows.
Stream flow affects the timing and delivery of water downstream for agricultural and domestic uses. An analysis of three upper-elevation watersheds in Colorado showed no significant trends in stream flow but high annual variation (Figure 3). Other investigators have shown tendencies for earlier snowmelt and peak stream flows of several watersheds in the western United States under current and projected climatic conditions (Leung et al., 2003; Stewart, Cayan and Dettinger, 2004, 2005). Storm runoff and rain added to snow events may be more common in a warming climate. However, multi-year droughts may be even more detrimental. It is likely that many water supply systems that developed under historically wetter conditions may be inadequate during exceptional droughts. Mega-droughts, such as a drought in the lower Colorado River in the mid-1100s believed to have lasted 60 years or more (Meko et al., 2007), should capture the attention of today’s water planners.
Stream flow depends heavily on the amount, timing and form of precipitation. Generally, snow remains in the watershed longer than rain. Groundwater storage, loss and recharge also have an influence on stream flow. Other important factors include the periodicity and sequencing of wet and dry years relative to groundwater recharge and water supply systems (e.g. irrigation systems, canals, dams) which buffer the effects of drought.
There is little doubt that future climate change will affect water supplies – fluctuations in climate have always done so. However, this influence is interlinked with forest and landscape legacies, altered disturbance regimes and invasive plants, insects and pathogens.
2
Long-term temperature (top), precipitation (middle) and annual fluctuation (bottom) for the Colorado River Basin

3
Annual stream flow data for three upper-elevation watersheds in Colorado (discharge, m3 per second)

ALTERED DISTURBANCE REGIMES

Humans have caused changes in many natural systems by altering historic disturbance regimes such as the frequency, intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks. Likewise, flood control with dams, reservoirs and canals has an obvious effect on flow patterns in many watersheds. Fire suppression has greatly reduced the number of wildfires each year in the United States (Figure 4, top), while the area of each fire appears to be on the increase (Figure 4, bottom). Extensive logging and very large fires in the first half of the twentieth century altered many forested watersheds in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, as evidenced by hundreds of repeat photographs (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). Subsequent even-aged and dense forest regrowth undoubtedly added to forest homogeneity and the amount of fuels available for wildfires today in some areas.
Native insect and pathogen outbreaks are periodic and can be locally devastating to forest structure and biomass, which in turn affect water supplies. Large bark beetle outbreaks have affected several million hectares of United States forests in recent years. Defoliated forests may behave similarly to forests that have been burned, but the effect of defoliation may not be as extensive or continuous in many areas. While the co-evolution of native forest species with native insects and pathogens provides some ecosystem resilience, native forests are now additionally bombarded with non-native invasive pests for which natural defences are limited.
4
Annual stream flow data for three upper-elevation watersheds in Colorado (discharge, m3 per second)

INVASIVE SPECIES

Non-native invasive forest pests and pathogens add significant stress to watersheds, with the ability to decimate large expanses of intact forest. Notorious examples in the United States, some introduced recently, include fungal and fungal-like diseases such as sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) (Figure 5), chestnut blight (caused by Cryphonectria parasitica), Dutch elm disease (caused by Ophiostoma spp. and spread by the elm bark beetle,Scolytus multistriatus) and white pine blister rust (caused by Cronartium ribicola); and insect pests such as gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) and emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis). White pine blister rust, for example, has caused over 90 percent mortality to some subalpine forest stands in Glacier National Park, Montana. Because native forest species have not co-evolved with the pests, their natural defences may be limited.
Other harmful invasive non-native species may indirectly affect forest structure. Invasive earthworms in the United States are changing soil structure and nutrient cycling. Non-native grasses and shrubs, often dispersed by birds spreading the seeds, can alter the fuel loads in forests and thus the natural fire regimes. 
Some invasive species directly or indirectly affect stream water quality and quantity. For example, Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica), which has more shallow roots than native riparian species, can affect water quality by increasing the suspended sediment loads and turbidity (Talmage and Kiviat, 2002). A freshwater diatom, Didymo­sphenia geminata, is changing physical and biological conditions in streams and may indirectly affect stream water quality by forming masses or blooms that degrade fish habitat, smother submerged plants and invertebrates and restrict water flow while depleting dissolved oxygen (Spaulding and Elwell, 2007).
The cumulative effects of non-native invasive plants, insects and pathogens may affect forest structure and biomass and downstream water availability. Increased trade, transportation, and long-range transport may exacerbate the problem. Pest inspectors intercept additional forest pests every year. 
5
Potential habitat suitability map for distribution of Phytophthora ramorum, the pathogen causing sudden oak death, in the western United States, prepared using maximum entropy distribution modelling technique

Typical forest affected by sudden oak death, California, United States
University of California, Davis, courtesy of the National Science Foundation

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

An integrated approach is needed to quantify and understand the effects of multiple factors on the quantity, timing and quality of downstream water from montane watersheds. Some investigators have tried to isolate the effects of recent climate change on disturbance regimes (e.g. Westerling et al., 2006), but a more comprehensive, integrated and long-term view may be warranted. The landscape legacy can directly affect wildfire frequency and size and the occurrence of invasive pathogens that add to the problem (Figure 6). Invasive forest plants, insects and pathogens can, in turn, directly affect the disturbance regime (e.g. invasive grasses altering the frequency of fire, white pine blister rust directly killing trees). Climate change and fluctuation can directly affect precipitation (timing, amount and form) and water storage, or it can indirectly affect water availability by influencing species composition and the occurrence of native and non-native pathogens and pests or the disturbance regime (the frequency or intensity of fires or native insect outbreaks). Continued land-use change and resource use add to the ever-changing landscape legacy (Stohlgren et al., 1998). An integrated approach and careful monitoring of many interacting factors may be the only way to quantify and predict the complex of changes facing many mountain watersheds. 
To develop a predictive science, water managers have a long way to go. Despite the general trends discussed above, site-specific predictions and models of stream flow have eluded scientists. For example, in 2002 precipitation in Denver, Colorado was below average, and newspapers at the time predicted continued drought and low runoff for the city’s water supply. However, subsequent years (through 2007) had much higher and even above-average runoff despite the regional trends of warmer temperatures (Denver Water, 2007). Unfortunately, scientists have yet to create accurate predictions of stream flow months to seasons in advance.
An integrated approach, which quantifies the current condition and past trends, can be combined with spatial and temporal modelling to develop likely scenarios of future change in forest structure and water supply. A strong “ecosystem forecasting” capability is the key: combining geographic information system (GIS) technologies with climate and land-use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.
6
Multiple factors affecting the quantity, timing and quality of downstream water in mountain watersheds
Bibliography
Denver Water. 2007. Reservoirs and more. Predicted & actual reservoir supply (three year span). Denver, Colorado, USA. Available at: www.water.denver.co.gov/indexmain.html

Leung, L.R., Qian, Y., Bian, X.D. & Hunt, A. 2003. Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981–2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies. Journal of Climate, 16: 1912–1928.

Meko, D.M., WoodhouseC.A., BaisanC.A., Knight, T., Lukas, J.J., Hughes, M.K. & Salzer, M.W. 2007. Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L10705.

National Interagency Fire Center. 2007. Fire information – wildland fire statistics. Internet document. Available at: www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fire_stats.htm

Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190: 231–259.

Pielou, E.C. 1991. After the ice age: the return of life to glaciated North America. Chicago, USA, University of Chicago Press.

SpauldingS.A. & Elwell, L. 2007. Increase in nuisance blooms and geographic expansion of the freshwater diatom Didymosphenia geminata: recommendations for response. White Paper. Denver, USA, United States Environmental Protection Agency Region 8. Available at: www.epa.gov/region8/water/didymosphenia

Stewart, I.T., Cayan, D.R. & Dettinger, M.D. 2004. Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario. Climatic Change, 62: 217–232.

Stewart, I.T., Cayan, D.R. & Dettinger, M.D. 2005. Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America. Journal of Climate, 18: 1136–1155.

Stohlgren, T.J., Chase, T.N., Pielke, R.A., Kittel, T.G.F. & Baron, J. 1998. Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate and vegetation patterns in adjacent natural areas. Global Change Biology, 4: 495–504.

Talmage, E. & Kiviat, E. 2002. Japanese knotweed and water quality on Batavia Kill in Greene County, New York: background information and literature review. Report to Greene County Soil and Water Conservation District and New York City Department of Environmental Protection. Available at: www.gcswcd.com/stream/knotweed/reports/litreview/JKandwaterquality.pdf

United States Geological Survey (USGS).  2007. USGS surface-water annual statistics for the nation. National Water Information System: Web interface. Available at: waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/annual/?referred_module=sw

Veblen, T.T. & Lorenz, D.C. 1991. The ColoradoFront Range: a century of ecological change. Salt Lake City, USA, University of Utah Press.

Westerling, A.L., Hidalgo, H.G., Cayan, D.R. & Swetnam, T.W. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313: 940–943.

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