Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

Journal of Forest Economics

Volume 17, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 142-156

Author 

Ince, P.J.^a, 

Kramp, A.D.^b , 

Skog, K.E.^a, 

Yoo, D.-I.^b, 

Sample, V.A.^c

^a  U.S. Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI, United States
^b  University of Wisconsin Department of Forest Ecology and Management, United States
^c  Pinchot Institute for Conservation, Washington, DC, United States 

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Abstract

This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a more detailed representation of U.S. regional timber supply and wood residue markets. Scenarios were analyzed with USFPM/GFPM ranging from a baseline 48% increase to a 173% increase in annual U.S. consumption of wood for energy from 2006 to 2030, while consumption of fuelwood in other countries was assumed to increase by around 65% in aggregate. Results indicate that expansion in wood energy consumption across the range of scenarios may have little impact on U.S. forest sector markets because most of the expansion can be supplied by logging residues that are presently not being utilized and also mill residues that will increase in supply with projected expansion in wood product output in the decades ahead. However, analysis also suggests that forest sector markets could be disrupted by expansion in wood energy if much higher levels of wood energy consumption occur, or if projected recovery in housing demand and wood product output does not occur, or if more restrictive constraints or higher costs are imposed on wood residue utilization. © 2011.

Author keywords

Forest products; Market modeling; Wood energy scenarios

Indexed keywords

Forest products; Forest sectors; Fuelwood; Global forest products model; Logging residues; Market modeling; Policy scenario; Restrictive constraints; Timber supply; Wood biomass; Wood energy; Wood energy scenarios; Wood residues

Engineering controlled terms: Biomass; Energy policy; Energy utilization; Expansion; Wood products

Engineering main heading: Commerce

GEOBASE Subject Index: biomass; energy policy; forest product; forestry modeling; forestry production; marketing; timber industry; wood quality

PaperChem Variable: Biomass; Commerce; Energy; Expansion; Wood Products

Regional Index: United States

ISSN: 11046899Source Type: Journal Original language: English

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2011.02.007Document Type: Article

  Kramp, A.D.; Forest Products Laboratory, One Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398, United States;
© Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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