Urbanization as a land use change driver of forest ecosystem services

Published Date
July 2016, Vol.54:188–199, doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.02.006

Author 

S. Delphin ^a,1,

F.J. Escobedo ^b,,,

A. Abd-Elrahman ^c,

W.P. Cropper ^d,

aSchool of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 350 Newins Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

bSchool of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 361 Newins Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

cGeomatics Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 1200 N. Park Road, Plant City, FL 33563, USA

dSchool of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 214 Newins Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

Received 23 January 2015. Revised 19 January 2016. Accepted 7 February 2016. Available online 22 February 2016. 

Highlights

• Integrated models and data used for a spatio-temporal analysis of ecosystem services.
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  Urbanization was modeled using a projected population distribution model.
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  Carbon, timber, and water yield modeled using geospatial and forest inventory data.
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  Trade-offs among carbon, timber and water yield vary spatially and temporally.
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  Findings can be used to identify and map peri-urban conservation areas.

Abstract 

Land use change in the form of urbanization is a direct driver affecting the provision of ecosystem services from forests. To better understand this driver, we modeled the effects of urbanization on three regulating and provisioning ecosystem services in two disparate watersheds in Florida, USA. The study integrated available geospatial and plot-level forest inventory data to assess future changes in carbon storage, timber volume and water yield during a period of 57 years. A 2003–2060 urbanization and land use change scenario was developed using land cover data and a population distribution model. The Integrated Valuation and Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs model was then used to quantify changes in ecosystem services. Carbon storage was reduced by 16% and 26% in the urbanized 2060 scenario in both the rural Lower Suwannee and urban Pensacola Bay watersheds, respectively. Timber volume was reduced by 11% in the Lower Suwannee and 21% in the Pensacola Bay watershed. Water yield, however, increased in both watersheds by 4%. Specific sub-watersheds that were most susceptible to urbanization were identified and mapped and ecosystem service interactions, or trade-offs and synergies, are discussed. Findings reveal how urbanization drives the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem services and their trade-offs. This study provides policy makers and planners an approach to better develop integrated modeling scenarios as well as designing mapping and monitoring protocols for land use change and ecosystem service assessments.

Keywords

Carbon storage

Timber volume

Water yield

Ecosystem service interactions

Ecosystem service trade-offs

Spatio-temporal analyses

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  Corresponding author. Current address: Functional and Ecosystem Ecology Unit-Biology Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Kr 26 No 63B-48, Bogotá D.C., Colombia.

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