Economic Model Predicts U.S. Forest Product Markets and Timber Demand Trends

Service Snapshot: Model provides insights on how U.S. competition and trade in forest products could be affected by expanded global use of wood for energy in future decades

Summary:  Forest Service researchers developed a detailed model that provides projections of future timber demands and timber prices under alternative scenarios regarding global economic growth and wood energy consumption. The model provides insights on how U.S. competition and trade in forest products could be affected by expanded global use of wood for energy in future decades. The Resources Planning Act (RPA) mandates that the Forest Service provide a periodic national report assessing the U.S. forest resource supply and demand status every 10 years. This report includes long-range projections of forest product consumption, production, trade, and timber market trends, and researchers developed a model that provides such projections. Benefits of this research include a precise and quantitative understanding of how future timber demands and values could evolve under alternative future economic scenarios The model provides a range of new and expanded capabilities, including modeling regional U.S. forest product production and trade, stumpage markets for hardwood and softwood timber, regional timber harvest and wood residue disposition calibrated to Forest Service timber data acquired through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, and the relationship between housing construction and wood product demands. Using global economic scenarios developed for RPA, the model shows that scenarios with large expansion in global use of wood for energy would likely result in large increases in real timber stumpage prices in U.S. regions, but U.S. producers of forest products could still gain competitive advantages if global roundwood prices increase more in foreign countries than in the United States as a result of expanded global wood energy consumption.	Princpal Investigator(s):   Ince, Peter J. Research Location:  FPL, SRS Forest Service Partners:  Southern Research Station External Partners:  University of Wisconsin Fiscal Year: 2012 Highlight ID: 26
Related Research Emphasis Areas: Woody Biomass Utilization
Resources: U.S. forest products module : a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment(publication) Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model (publication) Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060 (publication) Developing Inventory Projection Models Using Empirical Net Forest Growth and Growing-Stock Density Relationships Across U.S. Regions and Species Group (publication)

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