Testing Timber Market Linkages with a STAR Model with Housing Start-Controlled Transitions

Author

Harrison B. Hood and Jeffrey Dorfman

No 169055, 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Market integration has been widely studied in the past to gain a better understanding of how different markets for the same good interact with one another. Traditional cointegration tests have been used to perform these analyses; however, these tests can only reveal the presence of stable or average long-term relationships. To evaluate market dynamics over time, we modify a time-varying smooth transition autoregressive (TV-STAR) model to examine pine stumpage markets in the U.S. South. The proposed model incorporates an economic indicator and allows us to evaluate market integration as it changes throughout a specified time period. The potential significance of this work is twofold. First, market integration can be observed as a function of an economic indicator, and secondly, the proposed model will allow us to draw inference about market integration at specific time points.

Keywords: market integration; smooth transition; timber markets; Demand and Price Analysis; C22; E30; Q23; R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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