A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues

Author

Thomas Fullerton (tomf@utep.edu)

Public Economics from  EconWPA

Abstract: Fiscal uncertainty has led many states to utilize a variety of economic and revenue forecasting methods. To improve accuracy, many budget analysts use alternative projections generated by different techniques. Composite modeling goes a step further and allows users to systematically combine two or more forecasts. This paper examines the effectiveness of composite forecasting of sales tax revenues in Idaho. Baseline projections are provided by an econometric model and by a univariate time series equation. Composite forecasts are found to outperform both baseline models. Combined forecasts are also found to be more precise than executive branch forecasts actually adopted from 1982 through 1985.

Keywords: Composite Forecasting; State Taxes; Applied Econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pbe
Date: 2004-08-25
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 8
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/pe/papers/0408/0408006.pdf (application/pdf)
http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/pe/papers/0408/0408006.ps.gz (application/postscript)
http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/pe/papers/0408/0408006.doc.gz (application/msword)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0408006

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Public Economics from  EconWPA
Series data maintained by EconWPA (bparks@artsci.wustl.edu).

For further details log on website :
http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwppe/0408006.htm