Published Date
Abstract
European governments are rapidly turning to biomass to comply with the EU's legislated renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. To do so, EU member states will likely have to increase imports of biomass from timber rich regions, which will undoubtedly disrupt international wood product markets. In this study, a static global forest trade model of coniferous wood products is used to examine the effects of expanded demand for wood pellets in Europe to generate reliable electricity. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) is used to calibrate the model to 2012 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased wood-pellet demand on global forest products, we consider a scenario where EU demand for wood pellets doubles. Model results suggest increases in the world prices of industrial roundwood (1%), particleboard ($34/m3), fibreboard ($30/m3), pulp ($65/t) and pellets (71% to 128%), while the prices of sawnwood and plywood & veneer are projected to fall by $12/m3 and $4/m3, respectively. The gains and losses are unevenly distributed between timber rich and timber poor regions; Russia, Canada and the U.S. experience large net welfare gains of $706 million, $544 million and $416 million, respectively, while Asia loses $1.8 billion. In the forest products sector, the gains outweigh losses with economic benefits increasing by some $4.9 billion, but this is a cost to the consumers of electricity and/or taxpayers in the regions implementing these renewable energy policies. The price of wood pellets is projected to rise between $107 and $154 per tonne. The findings highlight the need to account for the interconnections among softwood forest products globally.
References
For further details log on website :
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/foreco/v23y2016icp27-44.html
Abstract
European governments are rapidly turning to biomass to comply with the EU's legislated renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. To do so, EU member states will likely have to increase imports of biomass from timber rich regions, which will undoubtedly disrupt international wood product markets. In this study, a static global forest trade model of coniferous wood products is used to examine the effects of expanded demand for wood pellets in Europe to generate reliable electricity. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) is used to calibrate the model to 2012 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased wood-pellet demand on global forest products, we consider a scenario where EU demand for wood pellets doubles. Model results suggest increases in the world prices of industrial roundwood (1%), particleboard ($34/m3), fibreboard ($30/m3), pulp ($65/t) and pellets (71% to 128%), while the prices of sawnwood and plywood & veneer are projected to fall by $12/m3 and $4/m3, respectively. The gains and losses are unevenly distributed between timber rich and timber poor regions; Russia, Canada and the U.S. experience large net welfare gains of $706 million, $544 million and $416 million, respectively, while Asia loses $1.8 billion. In the forest products sector, the gains outweigh losses with economic benefits increasing by some $4.9 billion, but this is a cost to the consumers of electricity and/or taxpayers in the regions implementing these renewable energy policies. The price of wood pellets is projected to rise between $107 and $154 per tonne. The findings highlight the need to account for the interconnections among softwood forest products globally.
References
- van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Johnston, Craig, 2014. "Global impacts of Russian log export restrictions and the Canada–U.S. lumber dispute: Modeling trade in logs and lumber," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-66.
- Kurt Niquidet & Brad Stennes & G. C. van Kooten, 2012. "Bioenergy from Mountain Pine Beetle Timber and Forest Residuals: A Cost Analysis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(2), pages 195-210, 06.
- Paris, Quirino & Drogué, Sophie & Anania, Giovanni, 2011. "Calibrating spatial models of trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2509-2516.
- Yamamoto, Hiromi & Yamaji, Kenji & Fujino, Junichi, 2000. "Scenario analysis of bioenergy resources and CO2 emissions with a global land use and energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 325-337, August.
- Buongiorno, Joseph & Raunikar, Ronald & Zhu, Shushuai, 2011. "Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 214-229, April.
- Johnston, Craig M.T. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2015. "Economics of co-firing coal and biomass: An application to Western Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 7-17.
- Peter J. Ince & Andrew Kramp & Kenneth E. Skog, 2012. "Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(2), pages 211-237, 06.
- Kenneth Gillingham & Steven Smith & Ronald Sands, 2008. "Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(7), pages 675-701, August.
- Ince, Peter J. & Kramp, Andrew D. & Skog, Kenneth E. & Yoo, Do-il & Sample, V. Alaric, 2011. "Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-156, April.
- Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
- Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2014. "Using Markets for Woody Biomass Energy to Sequester Carbon in Forests," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75 - 95.
- Moiseyev, Alexander & Solberg, Birger & Kallio, A. Maarit I., 2014. "The impact of subsidies and carbon pricing on the wood biomass use for energy in the EU,"Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 161-167.
- Craig Johnston & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2014. "Modelling Bi-lateral Forest Product Trade Flows: Experiencing Vertical and Horizontal Chain Optimization," Working Papers 2014-04, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2015. "The Economics of Forest Carbon Sequestration Revisited: A Challenge for Emissions Offset Trading," Working Papers 2015-04, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- Enrica De Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline," Working Papers2009.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
For further details log on website :
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/foreco/v23y2016icp27-44.html
No comments:
Post a Comment