Crude oil price determinants

Author

Jochen Möbert

No 186, Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics from Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics

Abstract: Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC's market power.

Keywords: Crude oil market; Econometric modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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