The impact on global wood-product markets of increasing consumption of wood pellets within the European Union

Author

RagnarJonssonFrancescaRinaldi

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate D, Bioeconomy Unit (D1), Via E. Fermi, 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy

Received 10 May 2016, Revised 11 May 2017, Accepted 12 May 2017, Available online 31 May 2017.

Highlights

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We propose a simulation approach for policy analysis regarding EU energy targets.

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The approach relies on a high level of disaggregation among wood-based products.

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Simulated raised EU consumption of wood pellet reduces consumption in other regions.

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Both synergies and competition between wood products and wood pellets are evident.

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Impacts on wood product markets vary within as well as across global sub-regions.

Abstract

The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in consumption of wood pellets, and the demand is expected to further increase the next decade. We use economic modelling to assess the impact on global wood-based product markets of gradually increasing wood pellets consumption within the EU. Comparing a scenario wherein consumption is determined exclusively by market forces with one where EU consumption is set to double between 2015 and 2030, we characterize the deviation from the unregulated market equilibrium that would attain. Our results highlight the necessity of assessing market impacts over time, with a sufficient geographical disaggregation. An increased EU demand for wood pellets would, apart from increased EU production, results in increased imports. The main sources are projected to be Russia, Canada, and, particularly, the USA. The results indicate synergies and competition between wood-based products and wood pellets. In general sawmilling stand to gain from increased wood pellets' consumption, while the opposite holds for wood-based panels and most paper grades. Due to the feedstock mix used in production of wood pellets and wood-based products, effects vary over time and among different EU members, as well as between EU and other regions.

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